In 1918, the Spanish flu pandemic killed 50 million people worldwide. Thirty-nine years later the Asian flu pandemic killed 2 million. And one final influenza pandemic in the 20th century had a death toll of 33,800 in 1968.
As of November 2009 there have been an estimated 13,870 deaths worldwide due to the H1N1 influenza virus. Compared to pandemics past, that number is small so why does the CDC continue to standby its position this pandemic is severe?
A story on NPR this week suggests reasons range from which criteria is used to determine severity to fear that people will lower defenses and get careless about their health.
Three criteria used to determine severity of an influenza pandemic are:
- The number of people that get sick with the flu.
- The number of people that are hospitalized with the virus.
- The number of people that die as a result from influenza.
Overall actual numbers are below expectations, even for the normal flu season. But looking at the groups most affected it becomes a little more clear why authorities are alarmed. While seniors are normally the most affected group by the flu, the H1N1 virus has affected young people and an above average amount of children have died.
Another possible option could a fear that fewer people will be vaccinated if they believe they aren’t in danger.
Could another outbreak occur this spring
The US supply of H1N1 vaccine is becoming more abundant and in some areas anyone can receive the vaccine. If fewer people are vaccinated it sets the stage for more people to get sick and spread the virus. And that means more people will die.
There is also a chance the H1N1 influenza strain will have a third wave early in 2010 when schools are back in session and people go back to work after the holidays.
One of the best possible options for you and your family is to get vaccinated after checking with you physician. Especially if you’re at risk. Check out our H1N1 Fact Sheet for more information.
What do you think about the pandemic? Has it been what you expected? Did you get vaccinated early or have you been waiting?
